Milan-Sanremo 2018 preview

Milan-Sanremo is the first 'Monument' of the cycling calendar and for many acts as the official opening of the spring classics. 

Kwiatkowski sat on Sagan's wheel before beating him in the lunge for the line last year
Photo credit: cyclingweekly.com

'La Primavera' is the ultimate test of endurance, coupled with stinging climbs for fatigued legs over the Cipressa and Poggio and a tonne of tension in the final 6km as any attackers try to hang on or the sprinters jostle for position as they nervously anticipate the flamme rouge on the Via Roma.

At 291km with six plus hours in the saddle, 'La Classicissima' is the longest one-day race in the cycling calendar, but often the race doesn't take shape until the last 20km with the Cipressa. 

The Poggio isn't a tough climb by any means - barely a category four by WorldTour standards - but with more than 280km in the legs by that point it can make or break the race. It will either enable an attacker or be the final hurdle for a versatile sprinter. If you're feeling good it will be your best friend. If you're not quite on it, it can be your worst enemy.

Take the last two editions as examples of how differently the race can turn out.

In 2017, Team Sky were in control at the beginning of the Poggio before world champion Peter Sagan took the race into his own hands and transformed the result from an assured sprint into a puncheur's paradise (see video below). 

2016 saw Michal Kwiatkowski - who came eighth in Tirreno-Adriatico the week prior - attack on the descent of the Poggio with 4km to go, before Fabian Cancellara and Matteo Trentin closed the gap to set up a bunch sprint. Trentin's Etixx Quick-Step teammate Fernando Gaviria crashed in the closing stages before Arnaud Demare out sprinted Ben Swift to win (see video below).

The same finale. Two completely different outcomes with completely different riders in the top five. That's Milano-Sanremo. 

In the 21 editions since 1997, 13 have finished in bunch sprints, while eight have been won from a break within the last 8km. 

The Favourites

This would typically be an exhaustive list, given that anyone can win it within reason and the finish is as predictably unpredictable as it is, but here's a small selection of tipped riders; Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe), Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors), Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky), Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates) and Arnaud Démare (Groupama-FDJ).

Also fancied are Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) and Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing). The two Belgians have been exceptional in the classics and monuments of recent years, but neither have ever won Milan-Sanremo. At 35-years-old, Gilbert is running out of time to complete the set of monuments (he currently has three) and may be confident that the weather conditions can work in his favour. 

The Outsiders

There's an absolute plethora of riders with a chance because the race is so unpredictable; Oliver Naesen and Tony Gallopin (AG2R), Elia Viviani (Quick-Step Floors), Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida), Matteo Trentin and Caleb Ewan (Mitchelton-Scott), Michael Matthews (Team Sunweb), Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data), André Greipel (Lotto Soudal), debutant Marcel Kittel and Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin), Alexey Lutsenko, Magnus Cort Nielsen and Michael Valgren (Astana), Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates), Sacha Modolo (EF Education First-Drapac) and Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo).

What The Teams Have To Say

Team Sky's Milan-Sanremo 2017 winner, Michal Kwiatkowski: "You need to save a lot of energy and you can be up there in the last 20km which is crucial. You're climbing Cipressa for 10-minutes so sometimes it's easier to wait for the Poggio so that's why there are many sprinters who are afraid of the Cipressa. As a team you have to stay really calm on the Poggio. You need to be on the front just before it starts and keep a high tempo. We were ready for Peter's attack last year and I'm happy it went in that direction. I knew Peter was the best sprinter in the group so it was a difficult situation for me and Alaphilippe to play. The final sprint was all about staying calm and I didn't feel any pressure." 

Marc Reef, Team Sunweb directeur sportif: "Michael [Matthews] has been progressing very well after fracturing his shoulder at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. He has been able to do some high-quality training in the past week, with tolerable pain levels and we are confident he’s ready to race again on Saturday at Milan-Sanremo."

Alexander Kristoff, UAE Team Emirates: "I've set up the first part of 2018 so that I can be in top form for La Classicissima and for the Belgian races; unfortunately, I've been set back by a few health issues. At the beginning of the Paris-Nice I had some days where I didn't feel very well, but I think I'm better now and I've been working hard to concentrate on the Italian event. The objective is to figure as a major player. I have the right team to put me in the position to express myself to the fullest." 

Marcel Kittel, Katusha-Alpecin: "If we take the decision to go to Milan-Sanremo then I want to go there to learn about the race because I have no clue as to what the race is going to be like. I'll go there with the best intentions but I want a free role for the race. It's a very competitive field and it's hard to go there without experience." 

World champion Peter Sagan on coming second to Kwiatkowski in 2017: "If I win like that, I wouldn't be happy with my performance. Everyone is different, we have difference personalities, that's life. That's why life is beautiful, everybody is different. I prefer to make some show for people and how it's going, it's going, it doesn't matter if you win or lose."

Prediction

With rain in the forecast from the start of the 109th edition, it's very likely a strong attack in the last 20-30km will prove decisive. Trying to keep the race together over the Cipressa and Poggio in expectation of a bunch sprint will be much, much more tricky in the wet.

1. Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors)
2. Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe)
3. Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky)
4. Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing)
5. Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott)
6. Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida)
7. Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin)
8. Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo)
9. Alexey Lutsenko (Astana)
10. Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates)