2018 Paris-Nice preview

The 'Beast from the East' may have decided otherwise, but spring is officially here in a meteorological sense at the very least, which means Paris-Nice is only days away. This year more than any, it is quite literally The Race to the Sun.

While we mere mortals are sheltering inside from the bitter Siberian cold, the hardy souls of the pro peloton are getting ready for battle in the first European stage-race of the season.

Paris-Nice is the perfect race to prepare for the Classics, with a combination of flat stages, tricky uphill finishes, puncheur-friendly lumpy stages and a fair few Cols and Cotes thrown in for good measure.

The Contenders

Julian Alaphilippe wins the uphill time trial on stage four
of the 2017 Paris-Nice
Photo credit: velon.cc

Looking for overall general classification glory will be Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors), Sergio Henao and Wout Poels (Team Sky), Daniel Martin (UAE Team Emirates), Warren Barguil (Fortuneo-Samsic), Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha-Alpecin), Jakob Fuglsang (Astana), Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Gorka and Ion Izagirre (Bahrain-Merida), Esteban Chaves (Mitchelton-Scott) and Tejay Van Garderen (BMC Racing).

Outsiders for a top 10 finish could be Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott), Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal), Tony Gallopin (AG2R), Sam Oomen (Team Sunweb), Robert Gesink (LottoNL-Jumbo), Lilian Calmejane (Direct Energie) and Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana).

The Sprinters

While there are only two out and out sprint opportunities - stages one and two - there's always a chance some of the classics specialists among the sprinters could stay with the leaders on some of the lumpier outings.

Elia Viviani beats Caleb Ewan and Phil Bauhaus
at the 2018 Tour Down Under
Photo credit: cyclingnews.om

Form is all important for sprinters, and those who've already picked up multiple stage and race wins this season are Elia Viviani (Quick-Step Floors), Dylan Groenewegen (LottoNL-Jumbo) and Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates).

There's still a wide variety of sprinters and classics specialists who could pick up wins on the way to Nice; Marcel Kittel (Katusha-Alpecin), John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo), Arnaud Demare (FDJ), Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal), Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott), Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgrohe) Magnus Cort Nielsen (Astana), Daniel McLay (EF Education First Drapac) and Phil Bauhaus (Team Sunweb).

The Route

The traditional route from blustery, cold, rainy northern France to the glorious sunshine of the Mediterranean gets tougher and more unpredictable with each incremental rise of temperature. 

2017's edition saw a surprise on stage one, as the sprinters and climbers splurged together in a tricky finale that saw two polar opposite riders cross the line first and second - Arnaud Demare and Julian Alaphilippe. The same could be true on the opening 135km stage of 2018, as the road steepens in the final five kilometres into Meudon on the southwest suburbs of Paris.

Stage two - Orsonville to Vierzon - is, weather permitting, as close to a nailed on sprint finish as you're likely to get outside of the Gulf. The 187.5km race will certainly be a ferocious fight for supremacy between the 12 plus sprinters.  

Stage three is where predicting this race becomes difficult. At 210km it's the longest stage and the finale is what's interesting. The final half is littered with a trio of category three climbs and depending on the strength of the field, could either see the climbers attack over the Cote de Charbonnieres or the race stay together and see a strong, versatile sprinter come out on top in Chatel-Guyon.

There aren't any standout specialist time trial riders in the race this year, but the almost pan flat 18.4km stage four will be crucial to creating a hierarchy heading into the final four stages. It's likely Katusha-Alpecin, Quick-Step Floors, Team Sunweb or BMC Racing will produce the winning rider.

Stage five is another unpredictable affair. The category one Col de Lagarde-d'Apt is the noteworthy focal point of the race, but it comes in the first half of the 165km, so once again it's very difficult to say whether or not the versatile sprinters will be able to stay in contention for the flat finish into Sisteron. There's a category three (Cote de la Marquise) and an intermediate sprint in the last 10km which may lend itself to a breakaway win for Lilian Calmejane, Thomas De Gendt or someone else of that ilk. 

Stage six takes the race's first foray into the pleasant mildness of the south of France in spring with a lumpy 198km from Sisteron to Vence. There are four category two climbs after the midway point and features the category one Cote de la Colle sur Loup and an intermediate sprint in the closing 10km. 

The Queen stage is truly Tour de France worthy. 175km out from Nice to the summit of the 1,500 metre Valdeblore la Colmiane in the Alpes-Maritimes. There's no room for error for the climbers on this stage. While nothing will be decided definitively before the final stage in Nice, the top 10 will almost certainly be somewhat organised. 

The final stage of the 2018 Paris-Nice lends itself to a close, whittled down finish with its six categorised climbs over 110km - Cote de Levens, Cote de Chateauneuf, Col de Calaison, Cote de Peille, Col d'Eze and Col des Quatre Chemins - and downhill run to the promenade. This stage in the last two years has seen the now retired Alberto Contador lose out to Sergio Henao and Geraint Thomas by just two and four seconds respectively on GC, so expect a tight scenario to occur again. 

For a closer look at each stage go to - http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/paris-nice-2018/stages/

Prediction

1. Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors)

2. Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha-Alpecin)

3. Wout Poels (Team Sky)

4. Dan Martin (UAE Team Emirates)

5. Bauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo)

6. Tejay Van Garderen (BMC Racing)

7. Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal)

8. Warren Barguil (Fortuneo-Samsic)

9. Tony Gallopin (AG2R)

10. Gorka Izagirre (Bahrain Merida)