5 Underdogs To Win At The Tour of Flanders
In the almost unimaginable scenario that Peter Sagan, Greg van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff or Philippe Gilbert don't win De Ronde van Vlaanderen, let's look at five underdogs who could take a breakthrough classics victory at the second monument of the season on April 1st.
Believe it or not, there is one very obvious way that either of those four kings of the cobbles don't win on Sunday, and that's if they mark each other out of the race.
It happened in 2011 when a group of 12 favourites came into the final 5km. Fabian Cancellara put in one last ditch effort, and while the other nine glanced aimlessly at each other, Sylvain Chavanel and Nick Nuyens chased the Leopard Trek rider. With Tom Boonen, Geraint Thomas and Juan Antonio Flecha leading the chase into the final kilometre, Nuyens - the rank outsider - stayed out of the wind only to break out and sprint past Cancellara and Chavanel for a famous and totally unexpected victory.
So, it can happen, but whoever does will also have to somehow outwit Quick-Step's 'wolfpack', who've won seven of eight Belgian one-day races this season.
You can see almost every member having a chance of taking the win if Gilbert isn't up for it or simply wants to save himself for Paris-Roubaix in a weeks time. Niki Terpstra is in amazing form coming off a glorious long range win at E3 Harelbeke - having almost been released by the team at the end of last season - while the ever present Czech champion, Zdenek Stybar, and Dwars door Vlaanderen winner, Yves Lampaert, have been phenomenal super-domestiques in all the classics thus far. Iljo Keisse, Florian Sénéchal and Tim Declercq will once again provide the muscle to keep the other four in perfect position until the race explodes.
That said, here are five underdogs with a chance of taking a famous win on Sunday.
Benoot has been in inspired form this season. He broke onto the scene with Lotto Soudal in 2015 but took until earlier this month to claim his maiden win at a mud soaked Strade Bianche.
The 24-year old - who doubles as an economics student at Ghent University - followed that result with a sequence of top 10s in the space of just a few weeks; fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico, fifth at E3 Harelbeke, sixth at Vuelta a San Juan and most recently seventh at Dwars door Vlaanderen on Wednesday.
It's well known that since retiring, Tom Boonen has taken a coaching role with former rival team, Lotto Soudal. While Benoot is still very young, Boonen may be the perfect person to coach his undeniable talent to a win at De Ronde this year.
Also, purely from a nostalgic point of view, the visual comparisons between Benoot and Eddy Merckx are quite remarkable. From the low riding position to the kit resemblance of Merckx's 1968 Faema team, it may be a sign that a new Belgian legend is about to take centre stage.
The forecast for Sunday around Oudenaarde is rainy and breezy: ideal conditions for Tiesj.
At 25-years old, Stuyven is only four years younger than his Trek teammate John Degenkolb - who has never been quite the rider he was since a training accident in January 2016 - but appears to have been given team leader duties in the classics.
A strong classics rider in his own right, Jasper is also a reliable sprinter, which he proved with 10th at Milan-Sanremo a couple of weeks ago and ninth at Gent-Wevelgem last weekend. Should De Ronde come down to a bunch sprint of 10 or so riders, Stuyven is a better bet than GVA or Gilbert, as evidenced by the result of Gent-Wevelgem.
While it remains to be seen how well he's recovered from a crash on Wednesday at Dwars door Vlaanderen, Naesen has been in great form during this classics campaign.
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| The archetypal classics specialist, 2017 Belgian champion Philippe Gilbert's walks across the line after winning last year Photo credit: limburger.nl |
It happened in 2011 when a group of 12 favourites came into the final 5km. Fabian Cancellara put in one last ditch effort, and while the other nine glanced aimlessly at each other, Sylvain Chavanel and Nick Nuyens chased the Leopard Trek rider. With Tom Boonen, Geraint Thomas and Juan Antonio Flecha leading the chase into the final kilometre, Nuyens - the rank outsider - stayed out of the wind only to break out and sprint past Cancellara and Chavanel for a famous and totally unexpected victory.
So, it can happen, but whoever does will also have to somehow outwit Quick-Step's 'wolfpack', who've won seven of eight Belgian one-day races this season.
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The 'wolfpack' control the peloton at E3
Harelbeke 2018
Photo credit:
velonews.com
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That said, here are five underdogs with a chance of taking a famous win on Sunday.
Tiesj Benoot (Lotto Soudal)
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| Once at rival teams, Benoot (left) and Boonen (right) are now on the same page Photo credit: wielerkrant.be |
The 24-year old - who doubles as an economics student at Ghent University - followed that result with a sequence of top 10s in the space of just a few weeks; fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico, fifth at E3 Harelbeke, sixth at Vuelta a San Juan and most recently seventh at Dwars door Vlaanderen on Wednesday.
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| Photo credit: pinterest.fr |
Also, purely from a nostalgic point of view, the visual comparisons between Benoot and Eddy Merckx are quite remarkable. From the low riding position to the kit resemblance of Merckx's 1968 Faema team, it may be a sign that a new Belgian legend is about to take centre stage.
The forecast for Sunday around Oudenaarde is rainy and breezy: ideal conditions for Tiesj.
Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo)
Jasper Stuyven has been threatening a breakout classics win for the best part of a season after a succession of top 10s in the last month at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Milan-Sanremo, E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen and a fourth at Paris-Roubaix last year. |
| Jasper Stuyven (front) leads the race at Gent-Wevelgem 2018 Photo credit: wielerkrant.be |
A strong classics rider in his own right, Jasper is also a reliable sprinter, which he proved with 10th at Milan-Sanremo a couple of weeks ago and ninth at Gent-Wevelgem last weekend. Should De Ronde come down to a bunch sprint of 10 or so riders, Stuyven is a better bet than GVA or Gilbert, as evidenced by the result of Gent-Wevelgem.
Sep Vanmarcke (EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale)
Ever the bridesmaid in the classics he's come close to winning, Sep has suffered from a lack of fire power in the finale, rather than poor tactics. The epitome of this being the 2013 Paris-Roubaix, when Cancellara and Vanmarcke rode into the velodrome alone, only for the Dutchman to be out sprinted by the Swiss.
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| Sep Vanmarcke attacks the lead group in the final 5km of Dwars door Vlaanderen 2018 Photo credit: thebikecomesfirst.com |
The 29-year old opened his Belgian one-day race account with a win at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in 2012, but since then has only been able to claim a multitude of top 10s: 20 in six years to be precise. His 2018 has almost been a carbon copy of his 2016 classics campaign so far, and if his form remains he could repeat or even better his third place at that year's De Ronde.
Realistically, if Vanmarcke is to win on Sunday, it'll have to be a long range attack. From what we've seen of him in the four classics and semi-classics to this point, he's still not got the best sprinting legs, so a time trial effort similar to Gilbert's of last year is his most likely option to finally triumph in Flanders.
Oliver Naesen (AG2R La Mondiale)
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| Oliver Naesen comes fourth behind GVA at E3 Harelbeke 2018 Photo credit: gettyimages.ca |
The 27-year old Belgian champion was involved in a minor crash around 75km into the race and fell onto his left knee. He was taken to hospital for a scan but no lasting injuries were found. AG2R La Mondiale directeur sportif, Julien Jurdie, was pessimistic of Naesen's chances of being in contention at De Ronde, but given his recent finishes at E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem - fourth and sixth respectively - he could still pull it out the bag on Sunday.
Unlike Vanmarcke - probably the weakest sprinter of this five - Naesen is very well covered in the sprinting department. While he wasn't in contention at Milan-Sanremo, and wasn't expected to be, his sixth place at Gent-Wevelgem ahead of a number of sprinters (Matteo Trentin, Sacha Modolo and Michael Matthews) shows the west Flanders native can more than handle himself in a bunch finish.
We haven't seen him in a lone attack yet, or even in a small group, but that shows his tactical nous to conserve energy while keeping an eye on the favourites, rather than go long and hang on as Terpstra did at E3.
Wout van Aert (Vérandas Willems-Crelan)
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| Van Aert easily stayed with the group of favourites on the cobbles at Gent-Wevelgem 2018 Photo credit: velonews.com |
Now, admittedly this is more of a heart over head pick, but it's not without ample justification.
Van Aert has made an impressively seamless transition from cyclo-cross to the road, and starting on the white roads of Tuscany and the cobbles of Flanders - a middle ground of sorts - has only emphasised how close the young Belgian is to the class of the established race winners already, without years of experience.
Van Aert delivered one the biggest surprise of the season so far when he entered Strade Bianche following a busy winter cyclo-cross season and came third behind Romain Bardet and Tiesj Benoot. The seated power outputted by Van Aert on the final climb perfectly demonstrates how well suited he is to riding climbs like the cobbled pavé of Flanders.
The 23-year old triple cyclo-cross world champion sprinted to 10th from a bunch of 19 at Gent-Wevelgem. Not only is that impressive from a rider with only two previous WorldTour one-day races under his belt, but it's even more impressive considering the team he represents is a wildcard entry. The Vérandas Willems-Crelan team make up for their lower level Professional Continental status though with one very experienced roster member - two-time Ronde van Vlaanderen winner, 38-year old Stijn Devolder (2008, 2009).
As with Benoot, it could be that first hand coaching from a legend of Flanders that makes the difference for Van Aert one day soon.
Prediction
While they are educated guesses, they're still guesses. One of Peter Sagan, Greg van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff or Philippe Gilbert will presumably come to the fore and win anyway like everyone expects. None have yet won the race twice, though, and in GVA's case, it's the one cobbled classic he hasn't won after claiming E3, Gent-Wevelgem and Paris-Roubaix last season.
Given the forecast - raining and breezy - I can see a small group of four or five breaking clear as a result of a crash on the Koppenberg at 45km to go. The cobbles will be even more lethal on the ascents of 20 per cent when it's wet, making the Koppenberg and Paterberg more race defining than in previous dry editions.
Given the forecast - raining and breezy - I can see a small group of four or five breaking clear as a result of a crash on the Koppenberg at 45km to go. The cobbles will be even more lethal on the ascents of 20 per cent when it's wet, making the Koppenberg and Paterberg more race defining than in previous dry editions.
1. Tiesj Benoot (Lotto Soudal)
2. Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo)
3. Niki Terpstra (Quick-Step Floors)
4. Sep Vanmarcke (EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale)
5. Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates)
6. Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe)
7. Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors)
8. Greg van Avermaet (BMC Racing)
9. Oliver Naesen (AG2R La Mondiale)
10. Wout van Aert (Vérandas Willems-Crelan)
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