2018 Tour Down Under preview
It's that time of the year again. The cycling season has woken from three months of winter slumber, and while the rest of us are trying to fit into last summer's kit and promising unfulfillable New Years Resolutions, the pros are setting off for six scorching stages around Adelaide.
While Geraint Thomas, Simon Gerrans, Rohan Dennis and Richie Porte comprise a short list of A list riders to go for the ochre jersey since it joined the WorldTour calendar, the TDU has become particularly popular with young riders (Aussie or otherwise) with a point to prove to their new paymasters. It's also a good guideline of who's trained well over the winter and who's self-indulged slightly too much on Christmas pudding.
2018 will be the 20th edition of Australia's premier bike race and it sticks fervently to the tried and tested formula: there'll be plenty of exciting sprinting and an adept climber will win the ochre jersey on 21 January.
The TDU gets underway on 14 January with a 50km warm-up race - the People's Choice Classic. The field get a day's rest before the sprinters battle for the first ochre jersey on the descending route into Lyndoch. The following stage however will surely provide a different leader and general classification, with a lumpy race to Stirling, a now regularly featured town on the TDU. Stage three hosts the second sprint opportunity into Victor Harbor, before the climbers take centre stage for consecutive summit finishes. Stage four takes in new territory for the TDU, with Uraidla hosting the finish. This stage features the notorious Norton Summit Road just a few kilometres from the finish line - this will likely show us who has the legs to contest the ultimate showdown for the ochre jersey on stage five. Stage five is familiar to regular purveyors of the TDU with a circuit of McClaren Vale - famous for its vineyards - before two ascents of the brutal climb synonymous with this race: Willunga Hill. A 90km criterium round Adelaide city centre is the venue for stage six, and will settle the battle for the red sprinters jersey.
This course should lend itself to being a shoe-in for a Richie Porte retention. There are no obvious big name contenders to go up against Porte, but there's an absolute plethora of experienced riders and neo-pros who'll be gunning to make an impression; Jay McCarthy (Bora-Hansgrohe), Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates), Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin), Ruben Fernandez (Movistar) and the Izagirre brothers (Bahrain-Merida) to name just six potential challengers based on the top ten of general classification in the last few editions.
With the wide array of both young talent and tenured pros in the race this year, it's possibly the most unpredictable edition in years.
We're promised three sprinters showdowns, and while the roster of road cycling's maddest men isn't exactly stacked for this year's TDU, there are still far more big names on the start list than recognised WorldTour calibre climbers.
Mitchelton-Scott's Caleb Ewan makes his usual appearance in his home race with his gaze firmly focused on retaining the red jersey, while Bora-Hansgrohe's newly crowned triple world champion, Peter Sagan, returns and will be looking to avenge a trio of second places to the diminutive Aussie in 2017.
Former Team Sky rider, Elia Viviani, will also be there representing new team Quick-Step Floors: the undisputed stage-winning kings of 2017. The Italian ended 2017 in fine form at the Tour of Britain with a stage win and several days in the sprinters jersey. Viviani will likely use this race as an advert for why he shouldn't have to play second fiddle to Fernando Gaviria throughout the rest of the season - although that's probably very unlikely.
Not to be overlooked of course is veteran, Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal), who makes his return to the race after a two year absence. The "Gorilla" may be getting on in years and hasn't won a race since last March, but you can never entirely rule out the big German sprinter given his 16 previous Tour Down Under stage wins.
Team Sky make an interesting decision by sending a team predominantly comprised of neo-pros - no Geraint Thomas or Ian Stannard this time. Some names to watch out for are sprinters Chris Lawless and Kristoffer Halvorsen, as well as Colombian sensation, Egan Bernal.
As ever with any stage race, it's incredibly difficult to predict the exact top ten. Nevertheless, here's my prediction:
1. Richie Porte (BMC Racing)
2. Jay McCarthy (Bora-Hansgrohe)
3. Ruben Fernandez (Movistar)
4. Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates)
5. Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin)
6. Gorka Izagirre (Bahrain-Merida)
7. Egan Bernal (Team Sky)
8. Peter Kennaugh (Bora-Hansgrohe)
9. George Bennett (Lotto NL-Jumbo
10. Enric Mas (Quick-Step Floors)
No doubt at least a few of those will be totally wrong.
While Geraint Thomas, Simon Gerrans, Rohan Dennis and Richie Porte comprise a short list of A list riders to go for the ochre jersey since it joined the WorldTour calendar, the TDU has become particularly popular with young riders (Aussie or otherwise) with a point to prove to their new paymasters. It's also a good guideline of who's trained well over the winter and who's self-indulged slightly too much on Christmas pudding.
 |
| Richie Porte wins the 2017 TDU after consecutive second places in 2016 and 2015 |
The TDU gets underway on 14 January with a 50km warm-up race - the People's Choice Classic. The field get a day's rest before the sprinters battle for the first ochre jersey on the descending route into Lyndoch. The following stage however will surely provide a different leader and general classification, with a lumpy race to Stirling, a now regularly featured town on the TDU. Stage three hosts the second sprint opportunity into Victor Harbor, before the climbers take centre stage for consecutive summit finishes. Stage four takes in new territory for the TDU, with Uraidla hosting the finish. This stage features the notorious Norton Summit Road just a few kilometres from the finish line - this will likely show us who has the legs to contest the ultimate showdown for the ochre jersey on stage five. Stage five is familiar to regular purveyors of the TDU with a circuit of McClaren Vale - famous for its vineyards - before two ascents of the brutal climb synonymous with this race: Willunga Hill. A 90km criterium round Adelaide city centre is the venue for stage six, and will settle the battle for the red sprinters jersey.
This course should lend itself to being a shoe-in for a Richie Porte retention. There are no obvious big name contenders to go up against Porte, but there's an absolute plethora of experienced riders and neo-pros who'll be gunning to make an impression; Jay McCarthy (Bora-Hansgrohe), Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates), Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin), Ruben Fernandez (Movistar) and the Izagirre brothers (Bahrain-Merida) to name just six potential challengers based on the top ten of general classification in the last few editions.
With the wide array of both young talent and tenured pros in the race this year, it's possibly the most unpredictable edition in years.
We're promised three sprinters showdowns, and while the roster of road cycling's maddest men isn't exactly stacked for this year's TDU, there are still far more big names on the start list than recognised WorldTour calibre climbers.
 |
| Caleb Ewan won all four sprints in 2017's race |
Former Team Sky rider, Elia Viviani, will also be there representing new team Quick-Step Floors: the undisputed stage-winning kings of 2017. The Italian ended 2017 in fine form at the Tour of Britain with a stage win and several days in the sprinters jersey. Viviani will likely use this race as an advert for why he shouldn't have to play second fiddle to Fernando Gaviria throughout the rest of the season - although that's probably very unlikely.
Not to be overlooked of course is veteran, Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal), who makes his return to the race after a two year absence. The "Gorilla" may be getting on in years and hasn't won a race since last March, but you can never entirely rule out the big German sprinter given his 16 previous Tour Down Under stage wins.
 |
| Dubbed the next Nairo Quintana, Egan Bernal models Team Sky's 2018 kit |
As ever with any stage race, it's incredibly difficult to predict the exact top ten. Nevertheless, here's my prediction:
1. Richie Porte (BMC Racing)
2. Jay McCarthy (Bora-Hansgrohe)
3. Ruben Fernandez (Movistar)
4. Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates)
5. Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin)
6. Gorka Izagirre (Bahrain-Merida)
7. Egan Bernal (Team Sky)
8. Peter Kennaugh (Bora-Hansgrohe)
9. George Bennett (Lotto NL-Jumbo
10. Enric Mas (Quick-Step Floors)
No doubt at least a few of those will be totally wrong.
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