5 Riders Who Need To Attack Early To Win Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2018

Given the typical profile of a rider competing at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, sprinting isn't usually their forte - unless your name is Michael Matthews - and so an attack before the final climb could prove pivotal for a rider to get the better of outright favourite Alejandro Valverde.

Alejandro Valverde dedicated his 2017 win at Liege-Bastonge-Liege to the late Michele Scarponi
Photo credit: roadcyclinguk.com

Liege-Bastogne-Liege is littered with short climbs, some not even categorised, but it'll likely be the penultimate ascent of the day, the Cote de Saint-Nicolas at 6km to go, that produces the race defining move if one of the following five wants to avoid a sprint finish.

If 6km proves too far out after 252km of racing though, a punchy attack on the finale in Ans may be the only chance to stop Valverde equaling Eddy Merckx's tally of five wins at La Doyenne - it was Alaphilippe's strong attack on the brutal Mur de Huy in the final kilometre that prevented the Spaniard claiming a sixth Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday.

Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal)

Tim Wellens salutes the late Michael Goolaerts after winning
Brabantse Pijl 2018
Photo credit: cyclingnews.com

Lotto Soudal have had a very good spring. Tiesj Benoot shot out of the proverbial cannon taking victory at Strade Bianche and several top 10s in the cobbled classics, and now his compatriot Wellens is showing signs the Ardennes are going to be his thing.

The 26-year old opened his spring account by winning the Ruta del Sol, before bypassing the cobbles and taking his maiden Ardennes win at Brabantse Pijl, adding a sixth and seventh at Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallonne respectively.

It's the win at Brabantse Pijl we need to focus on though. Wellens attacked the lead group with 7.7km remaining and two tough climbs still to get over - his victory had as much to do with the indecision of those behind as his strength to open a 20-second lead on his own against a strong pack of chasers. 

In attacking early, on or before the Cote de Saint Nicolas, Wellens stands a really good chance of holding off the rest of the field. He's less good at reacting to attacks - as we saw in Fleche Wallonne - and much better at igniting them and using his power to stay away.

Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida)

Nibali (riding for Liquigas) approaches the final kilometre
with eventual race winner Iglinskiy closing him down
Photo credit: cyclingtips.com

The Shark of Messina should have won the 2012 edition of this race, and only a catastrophic capitulation handed the win to Astana's Maxim Ignlinskiy.

Nibali, rather oxymoronically, has been both loud and very quiet this spring. He's been very selective with the races he's chosen to do, either doing them with the singular focus of winning or as prep work for later in the season: he came from nowhere to win Milan-Sanremo and then rode to 24th at the Ronde van Vlaanderen, which he'd already highlighted was purely a chance to recon the parcours for the Tour de France.

Given the way the Sicilian attacked in both Sanremo and Fleche Wallonne, it could be extrapolated that the Bahrain-Merida rider is intending to go long on Sunday. He was part of the breakaway with 49km to go on Wednesday that shattered Movistar's grip on the race and forced Valverde to put in far more work than he would have wanted to, and the same kind of strategy with one of his teammates could be the key to breaking Valverde again. 

Dylan Teuns (BMC Racing

Dylan Teuns came second behind Simon Yates on
stage seven of Paris-Nice 2018
Photo credit: sporze.be

Considering the strength in their ranks, especially in the cobbled races, BMC have had a very disappointing spring. Greg Van Avermaet featured but didn't impress in any of the classics and their climbers were more or less vacant at Itzulia Basque Country.

Teuns however, is a very young rider with a lot of promise in the Ardennes style races. The same age and nationality as Tim Wellens, Teuns made his breakthrough at Fleche Wallonne last year, coming third, and has had some encouraging results since in smaller stage races - winning the Tour of Pologne, Tour of Wallonie and the Artic Race of Norway, before registering sixth overall at Paris-Nice in March. 

Teuns hasn't yet won a major WorldTour one-day race and you get the feeling he's going to have to pull out a stunning solo effort to get one. 

Daniel Martin (UAE Team Emirates)

Daniel Martin claimed his maiden classics
win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2013
Photo credit: pinterest.co.uk

Martin appears to have struggled to settle in his new team since leaving Quick-Step. As the marque signing that he is, it's disappointing he really hasn't been getting any of the results that he probably would have hoped for this spring - withdrawing through illness at Paris-Nice, barely featuring in what is effectively his home race at the Volta Catalunya and DNFing at Amstel Gold last week.

The Irishman won this race in 2013 and it's the technique Garmin employed then that UAE Team Emirates should use on Sunday. Garmin put Ryder Hesjedal on the front of the lead group to wear it down while Martin sat comfortably at the back, awaiting the perfect moment to strike. Katusha's Joaquim Rodriquez put in a foray but the fresher Martin simply rode up to and then past the Spaniard to take the victory (all the while being chased by a giant panda, yes really). 

With the likes of Diego Ulissi and former world champion Rui Costa in the team, UAE Team Emirates have enough fire power to give Martin every chance of attacking a select group into Ans and turning last years second place into a second title. 

Michael Valgren (Astana)

Valgren perfectly took advantage of Fuglsang's work to win
Amstel Gold 2018
Photo credit: cyclingweekly.com

Valgren's win at the Amstel Gold Race last week was incredibly similar to the aforementioned Daniel Martin's 2013 win. Jakob Fuglsang, deployed in a super-domestique role, controlled the lead group with 17km to go, while his fellow Dane waited patiently at the back until he attacked with 2km remaining, leaving the favourites behind and beating Roman Kreuziger (Mitchelton-Scott) in the finale. Valgren has been in good form all spring too, winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and coming fourth at the Ronde.

While very good riders in their own right, Fuglsang and Valgren probably won't be on the radar of Valverde or Alaphilippe because the team around them isn't suited to controlling the race. Therefore, a repeat of Amstel Gold and setting up one or the other for a counter attack into Ans is their best shot. Valgren can win from a sprint, but only if the favourites are absent.

Prediction

1. Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida)

2. Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal)

3. Michael Valgren (Astana)

4. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)

5. Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors)

6. Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky)

7. Michael Matthews (Team Sunweb)

8. Dylan Teuns (BMC Racing)

9. Jelle Vanendert (Lotto Soudal)

10. Jakob Fuglsang (Astana)